BirdAnalyst
Guild · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Waterfowl In South Carolina

All statesSouth Carolina

3 species in this guild. As a group they are +129%Guild trendA mean-index aggregate across the species in this group — the structural direction of the guild, with individual-species noise smoothed out.Full methodology → since 1970.

Guild SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for waterfowl in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in South Carolina is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.20–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+126%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Waterfowl in South Carolina is projected to rise about 126% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.20–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.870.171.6
20260.870.171.6
20270.880.181.6
20280.890.191.6
20290.900.201.6

Member Species In South Carolina

Waterfowl species in South Carolina.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
Wood DuckAnatidae-58%
MallardAnatidae-31%
Canada GooseAnatidae+562%

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.