BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in South Carolina has surged: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

+377%Since 1988TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in South Carolina: up 377% on the route-weighted index since 1988.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in South Carolina is projected to rise about 155% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.19–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+155%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in South Carolina is projected to rise about 155% by 2030 — from 0.82 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.19–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19852030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.00.083.9
20272.00.113.9
20282.00.134.0
20292.10.164.0
20302.10.194.0

Canada Goose Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Canada Goose in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dillon6720212009
Bennettsville2420172005
Joanna1520212000
Salem1320242012
Foreston1220081994
Owings 21220252005
Dale1120222022
Walterboro820171998
Owings819971995
Anderson820101999
Plum Branch620251987
Green Sea620232023
Ridgeway620212013
Prosperity620222002
Coward520232007
Adams Run520232011
Holly Hill420162016
Bishopville320251992
Pinewood320191999
Battlecreek320172017
Cauthens Xrd320081998
Wagener220062005
Salem Xrd220141988
Barton Creek220221985
Ward220182018

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.