BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Colorado

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Colorado has surged: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+219%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Colorado: up 219% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Colorado is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.3–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Colorado is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 3.3–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.82.98.7
20275.93.08.8
20286.03.18.9
20296.13.29.0
20306.23.39.1

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Canada Goose in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rio Grnds Rs11920241992
Douglas Pass10520222000
Guffey6320251990
Julesburg6220211998
Heeney4820192017
Castleton4320252000
Lizard Head Pass4220252006
Tarryall4120251988
Radium4120042004
Walden3520251991
Cortez3320081988
Browns Park3020152015
Rifle Falls2520251998
Cortez 22220172009
Stillwater Pass2120091998
South Fork2020252001
Guanella Pas1920082008
Haswell1820242006
Heeney 21820252025
Owl Creek Pass1720232012
Falfa1520241991
Wildhorse L1520211998
Grover1520182007
Doyle Bridge 21520032003
Harmony1320241974

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.