BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Michigan has surged: up 82× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

82×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Michigan: up 82× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Michigan is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 5.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Michigan is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.6 (95% range 5.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.05.113
20279.25.313
20289.35.413
20299.55.613
20309.65.714

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Canada Goose in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cathro18520161977
St Charles16119961976
Deckerville11920241995
Marenisco6820191993
Raco5520251992
Ola5320251981
Mottville4520251986
Belding 23520252005
Homer3420211986
Traverse Cty2819921992
Brush Creek2720161985
Herron2220132011
Maple Grove2120232013
Ontonagon1920192011
Riggsville1920182017
No Bradley1720252012
Beaver Lake1720111984
Cohoctah1720252021
Nashville1520251978
Red Oak1520132012
Adair1519941983
Seney Nwr1520251992
Waldenburg1420171992
Wilson1220031995
Howardsville1220251979

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.