BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Michigan

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Michigan has surged: up 77× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

77×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Michigan: up 77× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.6 (95% range 5.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 9.6 (95% range 5.7–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.05.013
20269.15.213
20279.35.413
20289.55.513
20299.65.714

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Canada Goose in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cathro18520161977
St Charles16119961976
Hungerford12520241991
Deckerville11920241995
Marenisco6820191993
Ishpeming5220171988
Nashville4220241978
Homer3420211986
Ned Lake3120231996
Rochester3020241994
Traverse Cty2819921992
Brush Creek2720161985
Remus2420241986
Herron2220132011
Maple Grove2120232013
Raco2020241992
Ontonagon1920192011
Riggsville1920182017
Crystal Fls1720231992
Beaver Lake1720111984
Red Oak1520132012
Adair1519941983
Holt1420241982
Waldenburg1420171992
Wilson1220031995

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.