BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Tennessee has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

12×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Tennessee: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Tennessee is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Tennessee is projected to rise about 33% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.6–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.36.4
20274.42.36.5
20284.52.46.6
20294.62.56.7
20304.62.66.7

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Canada Goose in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Jefferson Cty6120061990
Whiteville3120241996
Big Sandy2620252014
Tiptonville1720121999
Pond Creek920241994
White House820191994
Peytonsville820251991
Glen820251992
Jones Gap820112009
Mansfield720252025
Union Hill720212001
Pawpaw620121987
Moscow620252001
Signal Mtn520251985
Silerton520241991
Wrigley520161991
Bradyville520191994
Cornpone420182011
Collinwood420251999
Petersburg420062000
Jasper420252003
Silver Pt320231994
Mt Olive320171989
Brownsville219991999
Trenton220051990

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.