BirdAnalyst
Species · West Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in West Virginia

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in West Virginia has surged: up 796% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+796%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in West VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in West Virginia: up 796% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in West Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in West Virginia is projected to rise about 151% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.5–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+151%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–9.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in West Virginia is projected to rise about 151% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.5–9.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.42.18.7
20275.52.28.8
20285.62.38.9
20295.72.49.0
20305.82.59.1

Canada Goose Survey Routes in West Virginia

Routes recording Canada Goose in West Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Monongah4720222003
Martinsburg3620251987
Clear Creek2920251995
Lost River2720232023
Olcott1820142014
Stollings1320172016
Dailey1220241986
Bebee1220181989
Cedarville1120231986
Hix920252002
Nicut820092008
Ruthbelle820251986
Bramwell620211982
Bismark620232005
Slate620241996
Rockport620241994
Green Bank520231996
Bowden420251997
Bemis420252002
Fayetteville419951994
Sugar Grove420251997
Josephs Mill419961996
Rio419921986
Pedro320231994
Sutton320131996

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.