BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in New York

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in New York has surged: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

37×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in New York: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New York is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.1–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New York is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 5.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.1–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.416
2026116.616
2027116.816
2028126.916
2029127.116

Canada Goose Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Canada Goose in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ballston Lk10619951979
North River10020072007
Dryden8920231994
Crescent8620241998
Blue Ridge S7420102010
Huntington6720231966
Number Four5820162009
Gainesville5720231987
Westbrookvle4920191971
Highland4320221996
Watertown4320091992
Harris Hill4320222005
Jones Beach4020131967
Westhampton3120241972
Catskills3120151988
Cobleskill3020231987
Warwick 22920131983
Castile2720241988
Medusa2620222001
Milford2520231997
Mt Hope2419931988
S Berne2320121994
Cicero Ctr2220241973
North Easton2220171977
Sheridan2019701970

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.