BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Oklahoma has surged: up 732% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

+732%Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Oklahoma: up 732% on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.4–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±201.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 2.4–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±201.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19832030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.01.98.0
20275.12.08.2
20285.22.28.3
20295.32.38.4
20305.52.48.5

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Canada Goose in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mts West13220252004
Bartlesville4220042003
Blanco3220021983
Phillips1820052003
Erick1320242018
Mill Creek1220182018
Collinsville1220211995
Wakita1220152015
Matoy1020252025
Mcalester819901985
Wichita Mtns819941994
Beggs820231990
Indianola720252019
Woodward720252013
Douglas620132003
Cooperton620251997
Elgin519941994
Tatums520242005
Wainwright519991997
Duncan520211990
Grimes420252002
Goodwater420212017
Cashion420221993
Peoria320222002
Heyburn320252006

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.