BirdAnalyst
Species · Rhode Island · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Rhode Island

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Rhode Island has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-75%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in Rhode IslandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has collapsed in Rhode Island: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Rhode Island

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 15× by 2028 — from 1.0 in 2023 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4856.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

15×Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4856.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Rhode Island is projected to rise about 15× by 2028 — from 1.0 in 2023 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4856.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2024150.0045
2025150.0045
2026150.0045
2027150.0045
2028150.0045

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Rhode Island

Routes recording Canada Goose in Rhode Island.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Block Island4120101991
Sachuest Pt3019781978
Wallum Lake820101981
Shannock420171973
Quonset Pt220231978
Casimir Pulaski Sf220182016
Pulaski119911991

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.