BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in North Carolina has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1989.

17×Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in North Carolina: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Carolina is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Carolina is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 4.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 3.4–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.32.97.7
20265.43.07.8
20275.53.17.9
20285.63.38.0
20295.73.48.1

Canada Goose Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Canada Goose in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mattamuskeet6520211998
Jarvisburg 24020192008
Copeland3720151994
Old Trap3520222011
Myrtle Grove3220242008
Roseboro3220231996
Sturgills3220232011
Pinelog3220242016
Congleton2720242001
French Broad River2120242006
Arcola2020241992
Cokesbury1820231996
Saxapahaw1720231987
Eden1720191991
Pinetops1720241997
Fairview1620242005
Hallsboro1520162001
Kinston1520241997
Jordan1420241990
Ostwalt1420242015
Cayton1420232023
Flay1320221994
Bethel1320242002
Sheffield1220192008
Hamlet1120241997

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.