BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in North Carolina has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1989.

20×Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
85Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in North Carolina: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.5–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.9 (95% range 3.5–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.43.17.8
20275.53.27.9
20285.63.38.0
20295.73.48.1
20305.93.58.2

Canada Goose Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Canada Goose in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mattamuskeet6520211998
Speed3520251993
Old Trap3520222011
Sheffield3320252008
Roseboro3220231996
Sturgills3220232011
Myrtle Grove3020252008
Jordan3020251990
Youngsville3020251999
Congleton3020252001
Pinelog2620252016
Cokesbury2420251996
Marshall2120252010
Arcola2020241992
Saxapahaw1720231987
Eden1720191991
Pinetops1720241997
Fairview1620242005
Hallsboro1520162001
Kinston1520241997
Ostwalt1420242015
Cayton1420232023
Flay1320221994
Bethel1320242002
Linville1220252002

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.