BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in New Jersey has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

16×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in New Jersey: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New Jersey is projected to rise about 120% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.2–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.2–2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New Jersey is projected to rise about 120% by 2030 — from 7.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 7.2–27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026166.326
2027166.526
2028176.727
2029177.027
2030177.227

Canada Goose Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Canada Goose in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Croton6320071973
High Point3920251978
Holmansville3820091969
Pedricktown 23320252013
Pottersville2920151978
Keyport2420221994
New Bedford2020241987
Robbinsville2019781978
Cape May Ch1920111992
Bennett Mill 21920252023
Woodbury Hgt1820251987
Clarksville1819821980
Toms River1720241975
Cranbury1720191989
Croton 21620232008
Bloomsbury1320251982
Pedricktown1320121991
Gillette1220241991
Greenwich1020251988
Hope919931975
Roosevelt920221986
Ocean City920181997
Six Points520241992
Winslow520241991
Kemah Lake420241977

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.