BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Utah

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Utah has surged: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

42×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Utah: up 42× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Utah is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Utah is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 0.00–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025110.0035
2026110.0035
2027110.0035
2028110.0035
2029120.0035

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Canada Goose in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Callao51520241992
Neponset Res25020171995
Dixie Nf17120241993
Lynn15020231986
Johnson Can8420182004
Randolph3420241992
Bear River3220231992
Alton3220191999
Alton 22420242021
Grouse Creek2119991999
Moon Lake1819971997
Bicknell1720191997
Goshen1420231982
Kamas1420231999
Navajo Lake1320222009
Leamington1319961996
Moon Lake 21120192014
Hatch1120172017
Escalante1020192003
Ferron920222012
Main Canyon720242014
Oak City519891980
Newcastle520182006
Fish Springs520232010
Promontory420231969

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.