BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Vermont

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Vermont has surged: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

18×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Vermont: up 18× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Vermont is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.0–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Vermont is projected to rise about 44% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.0–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.71.67.8
20274.81.77.9
20284.91.88.0
20295.01.98.1
20305.12.08.2

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Canada Goose in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stratton2620251990
Post Mills2220251986
Landgrove1220241997
Hardwick720242004
Hinesburg619931977
S Reading520211995
S Wallingfrd520221991
East Haven520242018
Stowe520242024
North Pownal420252005
St Johnsbury420241997
W Rutland320251992
Bristol320091995
Marlboro220232014
Shaftsbury220251978
Northfld Fls220082008
Greensboro220252006
Fletcher220232015
Colchester220251995
Gaysville120191997
Middlesex120252008
East Calais120251999
Grand Isle120251987
Newbury 2120222014

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.