BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Vermont

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Vermont has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

24×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Vermont: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Vermont is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.0–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Vermont is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 6.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.1 (95% range 2.0–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.71.67.8
20264.81.77.9
20274.91.88.0
20285.01.98.1
20295.12.08.3

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Canada Goose in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Post Mills4020241986
East Calais1720241999
Stratton1420241990
Landgrove1220241997
Colchester1120221995
W Rutland920241992
Hardwick720242004
North Pownal620232005
Hinesburg619931977
S Reading520211995
S Wallingfrd520221991
East Haven520242018
Stowe520242024
St Johnsbury420241997
Greensboro420242006
Shaftsbury320231978
Middlesex320232008
Grand Isle320241987
Bristol320091995
Marlboro220232014
Northfld Fls220082008
Fletcher220232015
Gaysville120191997
Newbury 2120222014

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.