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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Massachusetts has surged: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

27×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Massachusetts: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 3.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.02.711
20277.12.811
20287.22.911
20297.33.012
20307.43.112

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Canada Goose in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holden6020251982
Hancock4020141998
Princeton3019761972
Marion2820251967
Wellfleet 22520252016
Maynard920211969
Warren 2920252010
E Pepperell619941987
Cheshire619921974
Littleton520241988
Monterey520252019
Chilmark419831971
Mansfield420221970
Belchertown420251986
N Orange420241977
Pittsfield420061976
Cummington 2420242015
E Dennis320211968
Chesterfield320251986
Sheffield320121978
Ware River320181994
Wellfleet219771977
Brockton220181984
Newburyport220151974
N Oxford220251994

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.