BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Massachusetts has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

21×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Massachusetts: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.1 (95% range 2.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.9–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Massachusetts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.1 (95% range 2.9–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.72.411
20266.82.511
20276.92.711
20287.02.811
20297.12.911

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Canada Goose in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holden4720241982
Hancock4020141998
Princeton3019761972
Chesterfield2320241986
Wellfleet 21320212016
Maynard920211969
Belchertown720241986
N. Andover720241995
E Pepperell619941987
Cheshire619921974
Marion520241967
Littleton520241988
Chilmark419831971
Mansfield420221970
N Orange420241977
Pittsfield420061976
Gay Head420242002
Cummington 2420242015
E Dennis320211968
Sheffield320121978
Ware River320181994
Warren 2320242010
Wellfleet219771977
Brockton220181984
Newburyport220151974

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.