BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Montana has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

21×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Montana: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Montana is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Montana is projected to rise about 28% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.00.0017
20278.10.0018
20288.30.0018
20298.40.0018
20308.50.0018

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Canada Goose in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaverhead13320251973
Hebgen Lake8520252017
St Xavier7920101984
Flatwillow 26820182018
Two Dot5920251980
Lambert4520252022
Glasgow4420252002
Winnett3720252023
Cabin Creek3120232018
Chinook2920232016
Roundup2820242017
Dinosaurs H.M.2620212021
Virgelle2520251979
Wolf Point2420212017
Cleveland2220241990
Ingomar1820251993
Wheat Basin1820252017
Highwood1720241975
Shawmut1720231996
Philipsburg1620242015
Hehn Draw1620242024
Chestnut1420252006
Wise River1420222000
Jordan South1420182018
Forsyth1320221990

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.