BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Montana

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Montana has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

20×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Montana: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Montana is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Montana is projected to rise about 99% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.5 (95% range 0.00–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.00.0018
20268.10.0018
20278.20.0018
20288.40.0018
20298.50.0018

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Canada Goose in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Redstone20520182002
St Xavier7920101984
Flatwillow 26820182018
Two Dot4920241980
Hebgen Lake4920242017
Maynard Coulee4220182018
Great Falls3420241972
Webster3120241998
Cabin Creek3120232018
Chinook2920232016
Roundup2820242017
Dinosaurs H.M.2620212021
Wolf Point2420212017
Cleveland2220241990
Highwood1720241975
Shawmut1720231996
Wheat Basin1720242017
Philipsburg1620242015
Hehn Draw1620242024
Wise River1420222000
Jordan South1420182018
Forsyth1320221990
Elliston1220231998
Winifred 21220242024
Painted Rock1120221994

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.