BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Maryland

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Maryland has surged: up 224× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

224×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Goose in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Maryland is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.9–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Maryland is projected to rise about 100% by 2030 — from 7.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 7.9–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026146.922
2027157.122
2028157.422
2029157.723
2030157.923

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Canada Goose in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mardela9220191994
Earlton5820242014
Forest Grove5120232011
Harmony4420171998
Elkton4220251972
Cokesbury4120251985
Pomfret4020241980
Pomonkey3620241991
Upper Xrds3520081988
Newark3520251997
Tall Timbers3220141980
Melitota3120251978
Ijamsville3120251987
Nottingham2320252005
Warfieldsbrg1720241979
Bachman Mill1720231987
Randallstown1720111992
Olney1420251984
Pleasant Val1420251988
Jessup1420252013
Smithsburg1320141978
Theodore1320161988
Vienna1220251997
Furnace Town1220242015
Pr Frederick1220251993

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.