BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Maryland

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Maryland has surged: up 231× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

231×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Maryland: up 231× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Maryland is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 8.3–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.3–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Maryland is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 8.3–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025157.322
2026157.522
2027157.823
2028158.123
2029168.323

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Canada Goose in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mardela9220191994
Earlton5820242014
Forest Grove5120232011
Harmony4420171998
Pomfret4020241980
Nottingham4020242005
Madison3720241967
Pomonkey3620241991
Upper Xrds3520081988
Tall Timbers3220141980
Pr Frederick3020241993
Elkton2920241972
Cokesbury2420241985
Warfieldsbrg1720241979
Pleasant Val1720241988
Bachman Mill1720231987
Randallstown1720111992
Melitota1420241978
Piney Neck1420241972
Honga1420241969
Smithsburg1320141978
Theodore1320161988
Furnace Town1220242015
Wheaton1220241991
Cheltenham1120041996

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.