BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Minnesota has surged: up 62× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

62×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Minnesota: up 62× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Minnesota is projected to rise about 99% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 7.5–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+99%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±173.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Minnesota is projected to rise about 99% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 7.5–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±173.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026236.041
2027246.441
2028246.841
2029247.242
2030257.542

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Canada Goose in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sherry Lake18220222018
Minnetonka14220251975
Glenwood14120191993
Waskish13720232003
Evergreen13120241990
Whitewater12019971997
Warroad10220251993
Hartland9120171978
Chatfield 26820252017
Le Center6020161993
Beltrami5820251979
Dawson5620221973
Appleton5020251989
Courtland4420251981
Mcgregor3920251993
Nett Lake3320212013
Huntley3220081980
Nebish3220251986
New London3120241995
Gluek2920181985
Fairmont2920251993
Tamarac Nwr2820241992
Lake Bronson2620111990
Frontenac2620192006
Maynard2320151995

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.