BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Oregon has surged: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+374%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Oregon: up 374% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oregon is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+137%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oregon is projected to rise about 137% by 2029 — from 3.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.63.414
20268.73.614
20278.93.714
20289.03.914
20299.14.014

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Canada Goose in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnes Val17519871971
Merrill13420221993
Wedderburn9020232006
Catlow Rim8720242003
Wagontire7519831983
Modoc Point 26220242024
Sparta4720011975
Fish Lake4520241972
Glasgow4020241994
Nicolai Mtn.3320191994
Scappoose3120171999
Deschutes2520241999
Summit Pr2520242011
Sandy River2320061994
Garfield2120192003
Malheur Res.1820232023
Clearwater1620211992
Adair1520231974
Mt Hood1320162002
Dell Spring1219901990
Prospect1220231995
Camp Sherman1119941994
Troy1120241995
Salem1120231993
Wickiup1019881988

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.