BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Oregon has surged: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+381%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Oregon: up 381% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oregon is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.0–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Oregon is projected to rise about 43% by 2030 — from 6.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.1 (95% range 4.0–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.53.414
20278.73.614
20288.83.714
20299.03.814
20309.14.014

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Canada Goose in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow Rim25020252003
Barnes Val17519871971
Merrill13420221993
Fish Lake11520251972
Wagontire7519831983
Lapham Res.6220251991
Sparta4720011975
Glasgow3720251994
Nicolai Mtn.3320191994
Scappoose3120171999
Three Forks3020252011
Wedderburn2420252006
Sandy River2320061994
Deschutes2120251999
Garfield2120192003
Cecil2020252017
Malheur Res.1820232023
Clearwater1620211992
Bly 21420252007
Mt Hood1320162002
Bridgeport1220251988
Dell Spring1219901990
Prospect1220231995
Camp Sherman1119941994
Troy1120241995

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.