BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Alabama has surged: up 32× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

32×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Alabama: up 32× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Alabama is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.5–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Alabama is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.5–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.22.26.2
20264.32.36.3
20274.42.36.4
20284.52.46.5
20294.52.56.6

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Canada Goose in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Vina8520142007
St. Elmo7020212003
Guntersville5020241993
Rock Chapel4320242001
Castleberry2520232017
Choccolocco1920242002
Greensport1820241990
Lanett1820162016
Riverside1720131999
Greensboro1620241989
Drummond1620232023
Gastonburg1620171997
Seale1620172001
Stevenson1520242006
Dauphin Is 21420142009
Brundidge1420142014
Pine Grove1320241997
Mt Olive1320241996
Borden Springs 21320052005
Trade1220222018
Valhermoso Spgs1220101966
Kymulga1020182000
Calebee820231999
Wheeler Dam820222002
Carter Grove820222012

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.