BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Missouri has surged: up 573% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+573%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Missouri: up 573% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 1.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.3 (95% range 1.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.11.25.0
20273.21.35.1
20283.21.35.1
20293.31.45.2
20303.31.45.2

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Canada Goose in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mcfall5720251994
Reeds4720251995
Mincy4220252014
Barnard3620102003
Auburn3420242016
Rockingham2320231980
West Plains2320252017
Woodlandville2220242013
Richland1620152015
Sweden1520242024
Kearney1420251994
Sni Mills1219901990
Blodgett1220182018
New Point1020102002
Rensselaer920251997
Deventer820251999
Cassville820052005
Miller820232015
Emden820222018
Hamilton719831983
Diamond720252015
Harrisonville720222019
Cascade620252009
Kingsville620241992
Graydon520241975

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.