BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Missouri

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Missouri has surged: up 567% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+567%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Missouri: up 567% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.2 (95% range 1.3–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.14.9
20263.11.15.0
20273.11.25.0
20283.21.25.1
20293.21.35.2

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Canada Goose in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cameron8320221986
Mincy7620242014
Kirksville4020231997
Mcfall3720241994
Barnard3620102003
Auburn3420242016
Rockingham2320231980
Woodlandville2220242013
Deventer2020221999
Reeds1720231995
Richland1620152015
Sweden1520242024
Sni Mills1219901990
Blodgett1220182018
West Plains1020182017
New Point1020102002
Cassville820052005
Miller820232015
Diamond820242015
Emden820222018
Hamilton719831983
Harrisonville720222019
Kingsville620241992
Graydon520241975
Filley520241987

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.