BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Virginia has surged: up 46× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

46×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Virginia: up 46× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Virginia is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Virginia is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.92.89.0
20266.02.99.1
20276.13.09.2
20286.23.19.3
20296.33.29.4

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Canada Goose in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chincoteag W16520241993
Walkers5520231995
Taylorstown5120101984
Cape Charles4020181996
Moran3620142002
Stanley3020181996
Fincastle3020242004
Colonial Pky2919981992
Nat Tunnel2820002000
Taylorstown 22720242012
Big Island2620011997
Potts Mtn.2220082002
Newsoms2120162000
Finchley1920132006
Hall1620221996
Blacksburg1520231997
Newville1420171994
Churchville1220241992
White Stone1220242001
Ringgold1220241992
David920121989
Elamsville820162016
Star Tannery720232003
Port Royal720192001
Irisburg720241992

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.