BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Virginia

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Virginia has surged: up 46× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

46×Since 1982
60Routes In State
43Years

Notable Canada Goose Trends in Virginia

long arc increasecomputed index

Canada Goose has surged in Virginia: up 46× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Virginia is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 5.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 3.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029
6.3Projected 2029 index
3.2–9.495% range
±65.1%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20255.92.89.0
20266.02.99.1
20276.13.09.2
20286.23.19.3
20296.33.29.4

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Canada Goose in Virginia.
Chincoteag W16520241993
Walkers5520231995
Taylorstown5120101984
Cape Charles4020181996
Moran3620142002
Stanley3020181996
Fincastle3020242004
Colonial Pky2919981992
Nat Tunnel2820002000
Taylorstown 22720242012
Big Island2620011997
Potts Mtn.2220082002
Newsoms2120162000
Finchley1920132006
Hall1620221996
Blacksburg1520231997
Newville1420171994
Churchville1220241992
White Stone1220242001
Ringgold1220241992
David920121989
Elamsville820162016
Star Tannery720232003
Port Royal720192001
Irisburg720241992

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.