BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Louisiana has surged: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

+109%Since 2001TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Louisiana: up 109% on the route-weighted index since 2001.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Louisiana is projected to rise about 170% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+170%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.59Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Louisiana is projected to rise about 170% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.59 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.560.001.3
20260.570.001.3
20270.580.001.3
20280.580.001.3
20290.590.001.3

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Canada Goose in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plettenberg2320162009
Trout2020002000
Franklinton1820222017
Delhi920192015
Baton Rouge720242006
Gonzales720132013
Mount Union720232022
Norwood520212006
River Road320152012
Ltl Chenier320212001
Pearl River320222015
Evelyn220242024
Greensburg120162016
Gran Chenier119701970
Vinton 2120232023
Lake Cove120172017

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.