BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in New Mexico has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1992.

23×Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in New Mexico: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New Mexico is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in New Mexico is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.894.4
20262.70.964.5
20272.81.04.5
20282.91.14.6
20292.91.24.7

Canada Goose Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Canada Goose in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dulce22320242000
La Plata 22420162016
Angel Fire 21220232005
Shiprock819961996
Maxwell520241996
Angel Fire519971996
Vallecitos520102005
Valencia319961969
Stinking Lk.319991992
Gallinas320132011
Farmington219761976
Laborcita220161992
La Plata219971997
Sabinoso120212011

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.