BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Maine

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Maine has surged: up 623% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+623%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Maine: up 623% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Maine is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.1–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Maine is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.1–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.874.7
20262.80.944.8
20272.91.004.8
20283.01.14.9
20293.01.14.9

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Canada Goose in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hartford4720241980
Carrying Pl3720231993
Ft Fairfield3420041996
Kittery Pt3320241995
Benedicta3120182006
South Arm2720122008
Washburn2419931993
Deblois1720072007
Medway1420151998
Moose River1120031994
Forest Sta1119861984
Brooks1020141989
Cornville920242019
Seboomook Lk820132000
Cape Neddick620241997
Harmony620241988
Winn620021991
Otisfield Gr520151997
Bowdoin Ctr420072007
Freedom420031993
Charleston420142014
Greenville420222006
Clayton Lake419991992
Wilson Mills320241999
Yankeetuladi320082008

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.