BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Texas

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Texas has surged: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

+236%Since 2000TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Texas: up 236% on the route-weighted index since 2000.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.37Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.37 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19962030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.330.000.71
20270.340.000.71
20280.350.000.72
20290.360.000.73
20300.370.000.74

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Canada Goose in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Weatherford3820252004
Henrietta2520221996
Smyrna 22320232011
Lydia1520252012
Charlie920222022
Massey Lake720252000
Chandler 2620182011
Selden620181998
Floydada620052005
Sadler520232009
Cayuga420232015
Gambill Ref.420252009
Panhandle420072007
Indianola320222022
Liberty Hill320232004
Rhome320242022
Blue Ridge220182018
Winnie220022002
Katy220222022
Morton220252023
Adamsville120242024
Athens120192007
Glen Rose120252016
Dike120182016
Twichell120222022

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.