BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Florida

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Florida has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+59%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has risen sharply in Florida: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Florida is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.03–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Florida is projected to fall about 38% by 2029 — from 0.77 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.03–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.430.000.88
20260.440.000.89
20270.450.010.90
20280.470.020.91
20290.480.030.92

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Canada Goose in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Callahan2220242005
Belmore2020242013
Laurel Hill620162016
Mt. Olive420052005
Lovedale319961996
Doctors Inlet 2320182008
Oak Grove220042004
Miccosukee220221991
Hilliard220242005
Blackwater219951995
Scottsmoor220042004
Ft Waltn Bch120062006
Santa Rosa119991995
Aripeka120122012
Dowling Park120232023
Ft Mccoy120002000

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.