BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Ohio

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Ohio has surged: up 32× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

32×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Ohio: up 32× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Ohio is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Ohio is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.215
2026116.416
2027116.616
2028116.816
2029127.016

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Canada Goose in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kingsway7320241992
New Somerset7219931979
W Carrollton5320141994
Pittsfield4520241992
Botkins3620191996
Marion3620211988
Birmingham3620221992
Cuba3420241993
Herner Crns3320231986
Darrtown3220011992
Bismark3119951970
Garrettsvile3119911976
Middlefield3020171969
Kings Creek2720151992
Wayland2620161992
Lenox2620241981
South Olive2620162002
Strongsville2419941985
Smithfield2320241988
Dell2219951995
Limestone2020221987
Harveysburg1919961982
Valley City1820171996
Newcomerstwn1719881988
Wilmington1619951987

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.