BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Arkansas has surged: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+337%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Arkansas: up 337% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Arkansas is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Arkansas is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.2–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.974.5
20262.81.04.6
20272.91.14.6
20282.91.14.7
20293.01.24.7

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Canada Goose in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dell7020242018
South Bend3120191993
Crowley'S Ridge1520242012
Lurton1420232023
Hope1220242021
Wilson1120242000
Nance1020152009
Havana820212011
Saffell720192011
Eudora620102007
Locust Bayou620222002
Stark620232008
Hughes520211996
Zion520232021
Compton520222012
Russell520212013
Gillett520162010
Poyen 2420232008
Rupert320211990
England320242010
Stamps220242000
Harrisburg220122012
Coal Hill220191986
Massard220221997
Springhill220212021

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.