BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Iowa

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Iowa has surged: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1984.

37×Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Iowa: up 37× on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Iowa is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 10–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Iowa is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 10–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026168.824
2027179.224
2028179.525
2029179.925
2030181025

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Canada Goose in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washington10220251990
Red Rock7720251989
Williamsburg7220221988
Exline4520251989
Scranton3920251990
Clare3820191988
Mccallsburg3720251998
Titonka2420231990
Bedford2320252002
Sioux City2120251991
Neola1820151999
Pierson1620191994
Tipton1620192000
Bryant1320161986
West Liberty1020152010
Washta1020141993
Wales820182002
Dinsdale820251995
Alice719991994
Kanawha620052004
Lafayette620252003
Mt Hamill520252001
Panther520251970
Hudson520251989
Gaza520181996

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.