BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in South Dakota has surged: up 28× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

28×Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in South Dakota: up 28× on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in South Dakota is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 4.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+102%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in South Dakota is projected to rise about 102% by 2030 — from 4.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.7 (95% range 4.7–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.8%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.94.014
20279.14.114
20289.34.314
20299.54.514
20309.74.715

Canada Goose Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Canada Goose in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Britton10120231972
Raymond8020212005
Volga4720251985
Veblen3320231981
Cottonwood2820251995
Ft Thompson2720111990
Owanka1920141988
Chamberlain1620111990
Lane1619991999
Rockyford1420252003
Broadland1420122002
Geddes1220251999
Hayes1220211993
Maurine1120192008
Cedar Pass1020231970
White Lake920102010
Turton920251985
Badlands820161997
Wilmot720251979
Lodgepole720252017
Roswell620141991
Forbes620242011
Lane 2620082008
Tripp420251998
Indian420182011

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.