BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Delaware

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Delaware has surged: up 54× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

54×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Delaware: up 54× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Delaware is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 8.8–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.8–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Delaware is projected to fall about 44% by 2029 — from 47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 26 (95% range 8.8–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025246.941
2026257.442
2027257.942
2028268.443
2029268.843

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Canada Goose in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holleyville 214620242006
Harrington7320241974
Holleyville3320041976
Milton3220161996
Pepperbox2920162002
Mt Pleasant2520191968
Blackbird1020241997
Wilmington820131978
Pepperbox 2620242019
Lowes Xrds419871987
Georgetown220151999
Frederica120131968
Frankford119701970
Bethany Bch119901974

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.