BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in California has surged: up 707% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+707%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in California: up 707% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in California is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in California is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.2–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.82.012
20276.82.012
20286.92.112
20296.92.112
20307.02.212

Canada Goose Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Canada Goose in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowder Flat12220192002
Ingalls10720251974
Iron Gate10720191988
Madeline7020252001
Copperopolis6020242002
Moraga5720251978
Bodega Bay5320211999
Creston5120212018
Lake Berryessa4520252023
Hollister4420071991
Clear Lk Res3820181972
Sattley3520251974
Red Bluff3420251985
Coyote3220251984
Hackamore3220102002
Ono3020111996
Dorris2820191972
Gold Hill2720251989
Honey Lake2520251987
Oroville2020251989
Placerville2020232000
Riovista1920232003
Fish Rock1720132005
Moreno1520242021
Fairfax1520241986

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.