BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in California

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in California has surged: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+524%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in California: up 524% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in California is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in California is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 4.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.0 (95% range 2.1–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.81.912
20266.82.012
20276.92.012
20286.92.112
20297.02.112

Canada Goose Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Canada Goose in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowder Flat12220192002
Iron Gate10720191988
Moraga7520241978
Madeline6720242001
Copperopolis6020242002
Bodega Bay5320211999
Creston5120212018
Hollister4420071991
Hughson4020241988
Clear Lk Res3820181972
Hackamore3220102002
Ono3020111996
Coyote3020241984
Dorris2820191972
Likely2520241974
Sattley2520171974
Placerville2020232000
Riovista1920232003
Fish Rock1720132005
Moreno1520242021
Ingalls1520011974
Fairfax1520241986
Nubieber1420151974
Eagle Lake1320231971
Oroville1220241989

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.