BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Washington

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Washington has surged: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+629%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
77Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Washington: up 629% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Washington is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.3–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Washington is projected to rise about 73% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.3–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.05.0
20273.62.15.1
20283.72.25.2
20293.72.25.2
20303.82.35.3

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Canada Goose in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nighthawk6620241992
Kendall4720251996
Mcchord4720091996
Sulphur3920141996
Mercer3520191990
Pomona3019991998
Wapato2719951995
Columbia Nwr2220222005
Moses Lake2120211974
Cougar2120231991
Curlew2020132002
Deception1920181993
Rimrock1820251981
Winthrop1819831983
No Cascades1820191994
L Pend O Nwr1620241998
Ellensburg1420241991
Ewan 21420232023
Cusick1220241982
Hanford Site1219961989
South Elma1120162000
Yakima1120251993
Twisp1020221995
L. Wenatchee1019971997
Ronald920251992

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.