BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in North Dakota has surged: up 468× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

468×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in North Dakota: up 468× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 39 in 2025 to a central estimate of 55 (95% range 23–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Dakota is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 39 in 2025 to a central estimate of 55 (95% range 23–86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026501982
2027512083
2028522184
2029542285
2030552386

Canada Goose Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Canada Goose in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown61720251996
Danzig 217220252019
Bentley10320241994
Cedar Creek9520191975
Lakota 28520252010
Douglas Crk5020251986
Braddock5020231992
Glen Ullin3320221987
Webster3020241990
Buchanan2920251968
Carpio2920191987
Abercrombie 22720172013
Carson2520252001
Forman2320241982
Stanley2320221993
Sheyenne Lk2220251989
Lake George2120231980
Rolla2120241999
Lakota2020091976
Abercrombie1820121984
Danzig1720141994
Bowesmont 21520162016
Horsehead Lk1220251988
Golva1220211997
Walcott1120231982

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.