BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in North Dakota has surged: up 704× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

704×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in North Dakota: up 704× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Dakota is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 55 (95% range 23–88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
23–8895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in North Dakota is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 55 (95% range 23–88). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025511883
2026521985
2027532086
2028542187
2029552388

Canada Goose Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Canada Goose in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cooperstown20720241996
Niles13420241992
Bentley10320241994
Cedar Creek9520191975
Turtle Mtns9320241983
Douglas Crk8520241986
Sheyenne Lk6820241989
Wimbledon5220241989
Lakota 24920242010
Denbigh4620241994
Buchanan4420241968
Bowman4020241981
Braddock4020221992
Danzig 23620242019
Horsehead Lk3520241988
Glen Ullin3320221987
Webster3020241990
Carpio2920191987
Dickinson2820231979
Abercrombie 22720172013
Forman2320241982
Stanley2320221993
Rolla2120241999
Lakota2020091976
Abercrombie1820121984

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.