BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Idaho

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Idaho has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

20×Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Idaho: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Idaho is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 22–54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Idaho is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 38 (95% range 22–54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025351951
2026362052
2027362053
2028372153
2029382254

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Canada Goose in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Springs68020241988
Baldy Mountain6320152013
Preston5220211989
Naples4020241979
Springfield4020161974
Daniels Res3520191988
Dubois1520242011
Avery1419901990
Cedar Hill1320231993
Salmon River1220182018
Blacks Creek920171974
Sawtooth City 2920222021
Pasadena Val720161987
Cape Horn620222009
Ririe620232013
Magic Mtn620221991
N Fork Cda R520182018
Cabarton520231986
Golden420102006
Challis419911988
Crane Creek420141989
Nezperce Nf419981998
Nezperce320121989
Cascade319831970
Triangle320151992

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.