BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Illinois

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Illinois has surged: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

27×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Illinois: up 27× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Illinois is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Illinois is projected to fall about 40% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 7.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
202610.06.713
2027106.913
2028107.114
2029117.314
2030117.514

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Canada Goose in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eldred50920251994
Royalton8720232001
Bartonville8620251979
Lake Galena7020212001
Pulaski5820251970
Greenview5420232002
Geneseo5020251984
Mill Creek4620231995
Athensville4620251988
Dudleyville4620242002
Wayne4420251979
Belleview4420251990
Dailey4320251976
Payson4320252000
Fairbury4220222000
Marshall3920252013
Alden3720232019
Bluff Spgs3620251993
Shannon3320242004
Flora3220172000
Bremen3220252002
Cameron3120251983
Kell3120092003
Fairdale3120232019
Concord3020181987

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.