BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Illinois

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Illinois has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

19×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Illinois: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Illinois is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.5–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Illinois is projected to rise about 35% by 2029 — from 7.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 7.5–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.16.711
20269.36.912
20279.57.112
20289.67.312
20299.87.512

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Canada Goose in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pontiac13020241998
Royalton8720232001
Lake Galena7020212001
Greenview5420232002
Mill Creek4620231995
Dudleyville4620242002
Williamsfld4520241976
Fairbury4220222000
Streator4120242006
Alden3720232019
Lake Summerset3720192001
Shannon3320242004
Flora3220172000
Kell3120092003
Fairdale3120232019
Concord3020181987
Fairland3020231984
Janesville2820242000
Wayne2720231979
Le Roy2520141993
Geneseo2420181984
Beaucoup2320241997
Sherburnvill2220231993
Eubanks2220242002
Putnam2120011984

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.