BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Nebraska has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

22×Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Nebraska: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Nebraska is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.9 (95% range 3.0–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.42.510
20266.62.611
20276.72.711
20286.82.811
20296.93.011

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Canada Goose in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Richland13220241998
Ponca10420192019
Winside6020032003
Seward5020211995
Sumner4620092009
Eagle Creek4220222005
Nenzel4220242018
Winside 23520092005
Almeria3320212021
Kenesaw2620241991
Crescent Lk2520131980
Sargent2520242022
Brownlee2020191990
Ringgold1820142011
Tilden1720242019
Lyons1320232018
Surprise1220222009
Johnstown1220141998
Red Cloud1220192019
Murdock1220242019
Benkelman1019981998
Petersburg920211993
Belvidere820222005
Kearney820241997
Gordon820162005

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.