BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Nebraska has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

17×Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Nebraska: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Nebraska is projected to rise about 124% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 2.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+124%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Nebraska is projected to rise about 124% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.7 (95% range 2.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.32.210
20276.42.310
20286.52.511
20296.62.611
20306.72.711

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Canada Goose in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ponca10420192019
Lyons7820252018
Winside6020032003
Seward5020211995
Sumner4620092009
Eagle Creek4220222005
Nenzel4120252018
Winside 23520092005
Almeria3320212021
Kenesaw2620241991
Crescent Lk2520131980
Brownlee2020191990
Ringgold1820142011
Tilden1720242019
Swan Lake1320251983
Surprise1220222009
Richland1220251998
Johnstown1220141998
Red Cloud1220192019
Benkelman1019981998
Murdock1020252019
Petersburg920211993
Belvidere820222005
Gordon820162005
Mullen820231994

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.