BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Pennsylvania has surged: up 70× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

70×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Pennsylvania: up 70× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 135% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+135%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.3–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 135% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 6.3–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026115.616
2027115.816
2028116.016
2029116.116
2030116.317

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Canada Goose in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brunnerville28220091972
Slippery Rk9919941977
Plesant Grov8020241993
Ferris Crnrs6620231988
Collegeville6120241976
Drehersville5019991967
West Grove4519961966
Mifflintown4020251988
Ramsey3720251991
Shrewsbury3720221993
Hop Bottom3520251995
Waterstreet2920221995
Mt Gretna2920001992
Canadensis2720231995
Gatchelville2719791979
Rosecrans2620251997
Waller2620251978
Pottstown2619861973
Brick Tavern2620251990
Brunnerville 22420252010
Ryde2320051993
Leola2320241998
Berwick2220241992
N Washington2020231995
Arnot2020251992

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.