BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Pennsylvania has surged: up 75× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

75×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Canada Goose Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Pennsylvania: up 75× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canada Goose Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.8–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 7.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 6.8–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025116.116
2026116.316
2027116.416
2028126.617
2029126.817

Canada Goose Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Canada Goose in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brunnerville28220091972
Brunnerville 210720242010
Slippery Rk9919941977
Plesant Grov8020241993
Ferris Crnrs6620231988
Collegeville6120241976
Starlight 25720242008
Rosecrans5420231997
Drehersville5019991967
West Grove4519961966
Drehersville 24020242000
Shrewsbury3720221993
Jefferson3420241983
Waterstreet2920221995
Mt Gretna2920001992
Canadensis2720231995
Gatchelville2719791979
Pottstown2619861973
Landisburg2520231983
Mifflintown2420241988
Ryde2320051993
Leola2320241998
Clearfield2220241992
Berwick2220241992
N Washington2020231995

Canada Goose Population Trend in Other States

alabamaalaskaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.