Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose Population Analysis

AnatidaeWaterfowlBranta canadensis

Canada Goose has surged: up 105× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

About the Canada Goose

The familiar black-necked goose of lakes, parks and golf courses, the Canada Goose has become a year-round fixture across much of the continent.

Size
29.5–43.5 in long, 6.6–11 lb (75–110 cm, 3–5 kg)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Grasses, sedges, grain and aquatic plants, grazed on land and water.
Range
Recorded on 2,764 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 49 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Canada Goose TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in surveyed states: up 105× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Canada Goose Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 7.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 6.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 7.6–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.77.010
20278.87.111
20289.07.311
20299.17.411
20309.37.611

Where the Canada Goose Is Detected

BBS routes recording Canada Goose, sized by most recent count.

Canada Goose Population Trend by State

Canada Goose population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama28×197372
Alaska+60%198278
Arizonainsufficient datan/a4
Arkansas+259%199033
California+707%197398
Colorado+219%1976102
Connecticut-58%197120
Delaware56×197015
Florida+46%199617
Georgia34×198286
Idaho13×197552
Illinois27×1974104
Indiana13×197967
Iowa37×198435
Kansas+40%196945
Kentucky22×197744
Louisiana+164%200117
Maine+847%198055
Maryland224×197071
Massachusetts27×196931
Michigan82×1970102
Minnesota62×197589
Mississippi-52%199238
Missouri+573%197971
Montana21×197093
Nebraska17×198053
Nevada12×197323
New Hampshire11×198025
New Jersey16×197336
New Mexico25×199214
New York35×1968120
North Carolina20×198985
North Dakota468×197549
Ohio27×197178
Oklahoma+732%198738
Oregon+381%197182
Pennsylvania70×1970123
Rhode Island-50%19817
South Carolina+377%198833
South Dakota28×197248
Tennessee12×197942
Texas+236%200025
Utah38×197351
Vermont18×198624
Virginia43×198261
Washington+629%197777
West Virginia+796%198249
Wisconsin174×196997
Wyoming51×197685

Canada Goose Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Canada Goose population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-53%199314
BCR 3+73%19954
BCR 4-49%198338
Northern Pacific Rainforest16×197493
Great Basin18×1971166
Northern Rockies40×1970149
Prairie Potholes92×1972117
Boreal Hardwood Transition37×1973121
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain31×197182
Atlantic Northern Forest43×1969127
Sierra Nevada+773%197522
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau101×1974112
Badlands and Prairies28×1975103
Shortgrass Prairie+42%197846
Central Mixed Grass Prairie+78%196964
Oaks and Prairies+306%199322
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie40×1974258
Prairie Hardwood Transition190×1969156
Central Hardwoods73×1970133
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+53%198630
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+128%199034
Southeastern Coastal Plain81×1982209
Appalachian Mountains102×1971305
Piedmont44×1971147
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast48×1968150
Coastal California115×198543
Gulf Coastal Prairie+34%20027

Canada Goose Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 10393% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.