BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

20×Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
93Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 20× on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 151% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+151%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to rise about 151% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.51.75.2
20263.51.85.3
20273.61.85.3
20283.71.95.4
20293.72.05.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Canada Goose in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Copper RiverALASKA1002011
WedderburnOREGON902023
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA532021
McchordWASHINGTON472009
CordovaALASKA412024
GlasgowOREGON402024
Nicolai Mtn.OREGON332019
ScappooseOREGON312017
Sandy RiverOREGON232006
GarfieldOREGON212019
CougarWASHINGTON212023
DeceptionWASHINGTON192018
Port AngelesWASHINGTON182022
Fish RockCALIFORNIA172013
ClearwaterOREGON162021
AdairOREGON152023
ProspectOREGON122023
Kuiu IslandALASKA112010
SalemOREGON112023
South ElmaWASHINGTON112016
JuneauALASKA101994
HullvilleCALIFORNIA102007
MccloudCALIFORNIA102021
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON92000
HyderALASKA82009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.