BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 32× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

32×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 32× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.2–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+127%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.2–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 127% by 2029 — from 6.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 8.2–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025147.220
2026147.520
2027147.720
2028147.921
2029148.221

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Canada Goose in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ballston LkNEW-YORK1061995
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA991994
CrescentNEW-YORK862024
New SomersetOHIO721993
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA662023
PittsfieldOHIO452024
HighlandNEW-YORK432022
WatertownNEW-YORK432009
Harris HillNEW-YORK432022
Herner CrnsOHIO332023
CatskillsNEW-YORK312015
GarrettsvileOHIO311991
MiddlefieldOHIO302017
CastileNEW-YORK272024
WaylandOHIO262016
LenoxOHIO262024
StrongsvilleOHIO241994
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK222024
North EastonNEW-YORK222017
SheridanNEW-YORK201970
Valley CityOHIO182017
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK172015
BranchportNEW-YORK162024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK152024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK151998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.