BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 2 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In BCR 2

All regionsBCR 2Waterfowl

Canada Goose in BCR 2 has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-53%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has fallen sharply in BCR 2: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±200.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in BCR 2 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.0 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±200.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.004.9
20262.00.004.9
20272.00.004.9
20282.00.004.9
20292.00.004.9

Routes In BCR 2

Routes recording Canada Goose in BCR 2.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cape NomeALASKA112024
KotzebueALASKA102023
TellerALASKA92017
Kodiak 2ALASKA82018
Selawik (Short)ALASKA81987
Kugarak (Short)ALASKA71987
NomeALASKA62012
CouncilALASKA42024
Kotzebue (Short)ALASKA31986
Salmon LakeALASKA22024
Gweek RiverALASKA22002
TupuknukALASKA21995
ChiniakALASKA12017
St. Mary'SALASKA12000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.