BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 107× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

107×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
302Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 107× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 5.3–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 53% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 5.3–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.94.89.0
20267.04.99.1
20277.25.09.3
20287.35.29.4
20297.45.39.5

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA2822009
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA1322021
Brunnerville 2PENNSYLVANIA1072024
DrydenNEW-YORK892023
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA822024
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA802024
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE612006
GainesvilleNEW-YORK572023
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA572024
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA542023
GuntersvilleALABAMA502024
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA501999
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK492019
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY482024
MonongahWEST-VIRGINIA472022
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA402024
BirminghamOHIO362022
JeffersonPENNSYLVANIA342024
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA322023
PinelogNORTH-CAROLINA322024
CobleskillNEW-YORK302023
StanleyVIRGINIA302018
FincastleVIRGINIA302024
Warwick 2NEW-YORK292013
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA292022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.