BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 102× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

102×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
305Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Canada Goose In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 5.1–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 5.1–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.84.69.0
20276.94.79.1
20287.14.99.3
20297.25.09.4
20307.35.19.5

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Canada Goose in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrunnervillePENNSYLVANIA2822009
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA1002025
Plesant GrovPENNSYLVANIA802024
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE612006
GainesvilleNEW-YORK572023
GuntersvilleALABAMA502024
DrehersvillePENNSYLVANIA501999
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK492019
DrydenNEW-YORK482025
MonongahWEST-VIRGINIA472022
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA402025
GreensportALABAMA392025
High PointNEW-JERSEY392025
RamseyPENNSYLVANIA372025
BirminghamOHIO362022
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA362025
Hop BottomPENNSYLVANIA352025
SturgillsNORTH-CAROLINA322023
CobleskillNEW-YORK302023
StanleyVIRGINIA302018
Warwick 2NEW-YORK292013
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA292022
Clear CreekWEST-VIRGINIA292025
Nat TunnelVIRGINIA282000
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA272023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.