BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Shortgrass Prairie has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+32%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Goose in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.13–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.89Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.13–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.89 (95% range 0.13–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.840.081.6
20260.850.101.6
20270.870.111.6
20280.880.121.6
20290.890.131.7

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Canada Goose in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JulesburgCOLORADO622021
HaswellCOLORADO182024
UlyssesKANSAS182017
Wildhorse LCOLORADO152021
GroverCOLORADO152018
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO152003
HudsonCOLORADO142023
Adams Co.COLORADO122002
BenkelmanNEBRASKA101998
RockportCOLORADO92022
Prospect ValCOLORADO81999
EllicottCOLORADO72017
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO72021
FloydadaTEXAS62005
NunnCOLORADO52021
ElbertCOLORADO52019
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO52024
PaxtonNEBRASKA42016
PanhandleTEXAS42007
FlemingCOLORADO32014
LamarCOLORADO32008
ArsenalCOLORADO32015
LakinKANSAS32009
KimballNEBRASKA32021
Murray LakeNEBRASKA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.