BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 190× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

190×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 190× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canada Goose In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
16–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 16–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026211429
2027221529
2028221530
2029231530
2030231630

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KielWISCONSIN4502022
Rolling PrWISCONSIN4042025
St CharlesMICHIGAN1611996
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA1422025
GlenwoodMINNESOTA1412019
EvergreenMINNESOTA1312024
LoraineWISCONSIN1272021
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN1272025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA1201997
DeckervilleMICHIGAN1192024
ManawaWISCONSIN1152025
Omro 2WISCONSIN1042025
CochraneWISCONSIN1002025
AnnatonWISCONSIN992025
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN902023
Lake GalenaILLINOIS702021
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA682025
Le CenterMINNESOTA602016
OlaMICHIGAN532025
GreshamWISCONSIN512025
OmroWISCONSIN462001
MottvilleMICHIGAN452025
EdenWISCONSIN452025
CascoWISCONSIN432023
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN402021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.