BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 206× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

206×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 206× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canada Goose In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 15–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025211428
2026221429
2027221529
2028221530
2029231530

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Canada Goose in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KielWISCONSIN4502022
Rolling PrWISCONSIN2692024
St CharlesMICHIGAN1611996
GlenwoodMINNESOTA1412019
EvergreenMINNESOTA1312024
LoraineWISCONSIN1272021
HungerfordMICHIGAN1252024
WhitewaterMINNESOTA1201997
DeckervilleMICHIGAN1192024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN902023
KingswayOHIO732024
PrincetonMINNESOTA722023
Lake GalenaILLINOIS702021
Le CenterMINNESOTA602016
ParisWISCONSIN602024
CochraneWISCONSIN582024
ManawaWISCONSIN542023
Packertown 2INDIANA462024
OmroWISCONSIN462001
CascoWISCONSIN432023
NashvilleMICHIGAN422024
EsdaileWISCONSIN422023
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN402021
HomerMICHIGAN342021
MukwonagoWISCONSIN342004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.