BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 671% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+671%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 671% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 91% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.2 (95% range 0.00–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.00.008.3
20264.00.008.3
20274.10.008.4
20284.20.008.5
20294.20.008.5

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Canada Goose in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SattleyCALIFORNIA252017
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA202023
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA132023
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA122024
ChilcootCALIFORNIA122024
GeneseeCALIFORNIA112023
PaxtonCALIFORNIA102024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA82024
Chaos CraterCALIFORNIA62014
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA52019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA42016
DownievilleCALIFORNIA42014
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA42023
Forest HillCALIFORNIA32021
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32017
JohnsvilleCALIFORNIA22017
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA21996
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA12014
RivertonCALIFORNIA12021
GoumazCALIFORNIA12011
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA12023
StrawberryCALIFORNIA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.