BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

43×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 43× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Canada Goose In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.6–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.35.0
20273.72.35.1
20283.82.45.2
20293.92.55.3
20303.92.65.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North RiverNEW-YORK1002007
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK742010
HartfordMAINE602025
Number FourNEW-YORK582016
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE492025
HancockMASSACHUSETTS402014
Carrying PlMAINE372023
Ft FairfieldMAINE342004
BenedictaMAINE312018
South ArmMAINE272012
StrattonVERMONT262025
WashburnMAINE241993
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE242024
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE232016
Post MillsVERMONT222025
KasoagNEW-YORK212025
ReedsMAINE172025
DebloisMAINE172007
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE162025
MedwayMAINE142015
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Underwood 2NEW-YORK122008
LandgroveVERMONT122024
Moose RiverMAINE112003
Forest StaMAINE111986

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.