BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

41×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 41× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 5.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.4–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.52.14.9
20263.62.25.0
20273.72.35.0
20283.72.45.1
20293.82.45.2

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Canada Goose in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North RiverNEW-YORK1002007
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK742010
Number FourNEW-YORK582016
HartfordMAINE472024
HancockMASSACHUSETTS402014
Post MillsVERMONT402024
Carrying PlMAINE372023
Ft FairfieldMAINE342004
BenedictaMAINE312018
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE302022
South ArmMAINE272012
WashburnMAINE241993
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE242024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS232024
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE232016
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE192024
StratfordNEW-HAMPSHIRE192022
DebloisMAINE172007
East CalaisVERMONT172024
MedwayMAINE142015
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE142023
Jefferson HlNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
StrattonVERMONT142024
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE122024
Underwood 2NEW-YORK122008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.