BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Piedmont has surged: up 44× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

44×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
147Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Piedmont: up 44× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Canada Goose In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Piedmont is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 3.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+118%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±123.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Piedmont is projected to rise about 118% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.7 (95% range 3.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±123.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.23.013
20278.33.114
20288.43.214
20298.63.414
20308.73.514

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Canada Goose in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrotonNEW-JERSEY632007
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA612024
EarltonMARYLAND582024
TaylorstownVIRGINIA512010
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA451996
ShrewsburyPENNSYLVANIA372022
MoranVIRGINIA362014
Upper XrdsMARYLAND352008
Rock BranchGEORGIA342025
SheffieldNORTH-CAROLINA332025
IjamsvilleMARYLAND312025
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA302025
YoungsvilleNORTH-CAROLINA302025
PottersvilleNEW-JERSEY292015
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA292000
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA271979
PottstownPENNSYLVANIA261986
Brick TavernPENNSYLVANIA262025
Kite LakeGEORGIA252025
LeolaPENNSYLVANIA232024
Holly SprsGEORGIA222002
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA202024
Stoney PointGEORGIA192007
FinchleyVIRGINIA192013
LanettALABAMA182016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.