BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 92× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

92×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
206Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 92× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.5–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 3.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.5–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.13.15.1
20264.23.25.2
20274.33.35.3
20284.43.45.4
20294.53.55.5

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BethanyGEORGIA1162024
VinaALABAMA852014
St. ElmoALABAMA702021
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA672021
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA652021
Rock ChapelALABAMA432024
CyburMISSISSIPPI432019
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA402019
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA352022
Coffee CoGEORGIA342024
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA322024
RoseboroNORTH-CAROLINA322023
WhitevilleTENNESSEE312024
MaconGEORGIA282008
UnionGEORGIA282023
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA272024
White HillGEORGIA262024
CastleberryALABAMA252023
BennettsvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA242017
PlettenbergLOUISIANA232016
CallahanFLORIDA222024
NewsomsVIRGINIA212016
BostonGEORGIA202024
Grenada LakeMISSISSIPPI192019
HendersonGEORGIA182024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.