BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Goose In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 81× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

81×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
209Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Canada Goose In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.4–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 3.4–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.13.05.1
20274.23.15.2
20284.33.25.3
20294.43.35.4
20304.53.45.5

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Canada Goose in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VinaALABAMA852014
DillonSOUTH-CAROLINA672021
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA652021
St. ElmoALABAMA602025
Rock ChapelALABAMA432024
CyburMISSISSIPPI432019
SpeedNORTH-CAROLINA352025
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA352022
Coffee CoGEORGIA342024
RoseboroNORTH-CAROLINA322023
WhitevilleTENNESSEE312024
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA302025
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA302025
MaconGEORGIA282008
White HillGEORGIA262024
Big SandyTENNESSEE262025
CastleberryALABAMA252023
PittsGEORGIA242025
CokesburyNORTH-CAROLINA242025
BennettsvilleSOUTH-CAROLINA242017
PlettenbergLOUISIANA232016
CallahanFLORIDA222024
HowardALABAMA212025
NewsomsVIRGINIA212016
Grenada LakeMISSISSIPPI192019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.