BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Goose In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWaterfowl

Canada Goose in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 58× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

58×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Goose has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 58× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.2–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+235%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Goose in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 235% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.2–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025114.318
2026114.618
2027124.819
2028125.019
2029125.219

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Canada Goose in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CathroMICHIGAN1852016
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA1822022
WaskishMINNESOTA1372023
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN802022
PhillipsWISCONSIN742024
MareniscoMICHIGAN682019
Popple RiverWISCONSIN582022
IshpemingMICHIGAN522017
Union TwpWISCONSIN422024
BackusMINNESOTA362021
Nett LakeMINNESOTA332021
Ned LakeMICHIGAN312023
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN281992
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA282024
Brush CreekMICHIGAN272016
McgregorMINNESOTA232023
HerronMICHIGAN222013
Maple GroveMICHIGAN212023
RacoMICHIGAN202024
OntonagonMICHIGAN192019
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN192018
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN172023
Beaver LakeMICHIGAN172011
Red OakMICHIGAN152013
LudeMINNESOTA152023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.